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Prediction for CME (2022-10-13T07:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-10-13T07:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22003/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and to the South in STEREO A COR2. It has a separate faint shock that is only visible in SOHO LASCO coronagraph imagery with a more defined bulk portion seen in both SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is a filament eruption centered around S28E08 starting around 2022-10-13T07:00Z. The eruption is most clearly visible in SDO/AIA 304, 193 (dimming/brightening), and STEREO A EUVI 195. From Tarik Salman (LASSOS team), a definite CME arrival signature was not observed during the expected arrival timeframe. There appeared to be an SIR/HSS arrival at L1 on 2022-10-16 and 2022-10-18 which makes it difficult to identify CMEs with real-time data only. In such cases, pitch angle distribution (PAD), charge state, and particle abundance are helpful in identifying a CME in mixed CME+HSS signatures.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-17T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2022 Oct 14 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 21014
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Oct 2022, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 14 Oct 2022 until 16 Oct 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Oct 2022  10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Oct 2022  10CM FLUX: 128 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Oct 2022  10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 007
COMMENT: There are four active regions on the visible disc. One M-class
flare was detected from NOAA AR 3112 as it rotates over the western limb,
it was an M1.3 flare peaking at 09:44 UT. More M-class flares can be
expected for the next 24 hours.

A wide (angular width around 100 degrees), slow and faint CME was seen by
LASCO-C2 first at 07:48 UT on 13 October. This CME originated in a filament
eruption in the southern hemisphere (about 30 degrees south of the
equator), with the bulk of the material towards the south. Since the source
region is close to the central meridian, an Earth arrival is possible on 17
October.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. It
is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence
was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to decrease to
normal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions at the Earth have been dominated in recent hours
by the expected arrival of the CME from 10 October. The magnetic field
intensity have reached 16 nT with Bz down to -13 nT. The solar wind speed
is about 370 km/s. The Earth will continue to see the effects of this ICME
for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels due to the ICME (Kp up to 4
and K_Dourbes up to 3). Active to minor storm conditions can be expected
for the next 24 hours.

Lead Time: 71.97 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2022-10-14T12:02Z

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